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Friday, November 23, 2012

Southern Response Progress statistics update – Red Zone progress issues

Southern Response have updated their progress statistics to the end of October. The chart is here. The Red Zone statistics make interesting reading and add to concerns that a number of people will not be in a position to leave by the 30th of April 2013.

Of Southern Response’s claims 32% are in the Red Zones. All 2,131 in the Red Zones (100%) have had their assessments and costings completed, 98% have had offers, and 87% made decisions based on those offers (numerically this is 233 yet to make decisions, and there are also another 43 yet to receive offers). In the notes with the statistics Southern Response flag this gap as an area of concern.

Southern Response also report 49% electing to buy another house, 21% taking a cash offer, 9% as a customer managed rebuild and 8% rebuilding with Southern Response (see the NOTE below about the statistics published in the report).

Of those building with Southern Response (164 houses) 21 have been completed. The remaining 143 are made up of 59 under construction and  84 not yet started. While Southern Response note that the construction numbers will increase (a somewhat meaningless statement as there are no figures given), the approach of Christmas can be expected to slow progress and mean an as yet unknown number will not be finished by the 30th of April 2013.

Rebuilds that are customer managed (184) are not fully reported so there is no way of knowing how much progress, if any, is being made and how many will be completed by April 30.

Southern Response’s share of claims in the Red Zones is 2,131 properties, less than one third of all Red Zone dwellings. If their experience is typical of the progress being made then there are many hundreds of claims, decisions, and rebuilds experiencing delays, indecision, and the increasing possibility of not being completed by April 30.  If Southern Response has progressed more quickly than some other insurance companies then the situation is worse.  Actual numbers can only be speculation however it does seem there may be anywhere between 200 and perhaps 400 or more cases of households unable to move out come 30 April. That is a lot of grief if CERA decide to trespass and evict them.

NOTE:  Some of Southern Response’s percentages don’t give a clear picture of what is happening, being worked out on the overall number of claimants rather than on those in a particular category. An example is the statistic that 49% of claimants have elected to buy an existing house, a statistic based on the number who have chosen this option (1,045) compared with the total number of claimants (2,131) rather than the number of who have made decisions (1,849). In this situation it would be more indicative of what is happening to say 57% of those who have made decisions decided to buy an existing house.

When it gets to the number being rebuilt the percentages become increasingly meaningless. Rather than complicate life I have used Southern Response’s figures above, but they need to be reworked a little to have a better understanding of what is happening.

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